The World of Risk by Ronan S. Estoque (April, 2004)

This book was really a labor of love for the author, Mark Haynes Daniell. He does not have the gift of vision of Alvin Toffler but he did make some notable presentation of facts and trends. The catch-phrase for this book is next generation strategy for a volatile era.

To be very candid, this book came out in the year 2000 and as such, does not really qualify to the criterion of a new book. Accordingly, it is articulated that we now exist in a planet of accelerating but unmanaged risk. The author provides a fresh and a creative vision at risk and its impact on some of the most critical challenges of our time. The writer outlines the new state of the art model of global strategy and leadership- and applies it to provide suggested solutions to the rising set of risks inherent in crime, disease, the environment, in economic crisis, the poverty gap, the unguarded and unpoliced cyber world and the erosion of traditional systems of culture, value and belief. The big difference is that aside from articulating problems, the author presents an architecture of solutions that can make this a better world for the next generation.

The author discusses about the old problems that are in a form of a new paradigms. There is now a set of visibly recurring patterns that underpin many strategic problems in different disciplines. As such these are old wines in a new bottle. The author stated that:

*a national disaster or recurring problem emerges with international or cross-border implications

*an ineffective national response is made

*a confusion arises since there are no clear metrics to monitor either crisis or recovery

*insufficient resources are made available and political will falters

*there is no agreed plan, so implementation progress stalls or fades away

*leadership is distracted as the crisis loses its headline intensity

*the usual unsatisfactory status quo ante is resumed

The common characteristic in these patterns is the roles played by the evolution in global channels of delivery and distribution.

The elements of opportunity, risk and dynamic systems behavior are common to all. As the pattern and systemic content share many elements, the solutions can also rely on the same approach to the development of strategy. Technically, even the management of SARS (Severe Acquired Respiratory Syndrome) falls in this template of responses that our government is making.

The key word really, is that there is a pervasive satisfactory underperformance in almost all aspect of human endeavor. And since there is satisfactory underperformance, the buzzword next generation strategy now comes in.

There is satisfactory underperformance in education, medicine, industry, politics, business and even technology. Satisfactory underperformance because these human endeavors could always do better. Just as the biggest room in the world, is the room for improvement (no pun intended), under performance is pervasive in these accomplishment and undertaking.

Next generation strategy pertains to the moves that generation x and y must perform so as to better this planet.

The following questions are raised by the author: Are those with the power and influence to bring about needed change up to the task of creating new visions and realizing them in the complex modern world? Do our leaders have the will to bring about the full set of changes that are possible? Are they content to drift along in a state of satisfactory under performance? Or are they capable of rising to the challenge of fundamental change and dramatic improvement?

We live in a world of risk. We live in a volatile era of systemic turbulence, and of rapid and dramatic change. We also live in a world of great opportunity. As we face a future in great part of our own creation and shaped by our own endeavors we can go much farther toward the goal of achieving out true full potential. Ultimately, achieving that vision is what next generation strategy is all about.

The global nature of the capital system and electronification of distribution has led to currency crises, economic collapse, and the brutal dashing of the economic aspirations of hundreds of millions of the world’s citizens. Though the international banking system has created an enabling structure for international business transactions, it simultaneously provides the channels for drug dealers, corrupt officials, and various other felons to launder money and escape detection and prosecution.

Let us take for example the topic of economic disparity. It is said that the world’s three richest men now have more wealth between them than the combined GNP of the 43 poorest countries. But the stark fact of this enormous gap is not the only perspective of the gap between the rich and the poor. There is a gap between the developed markets and the developing countries of the world. There is an increasing gap between the international super-wealthy and an emerging global underclass which creates an unsustainable and dangerous social dynamic as well as a morally challenging state of material differences between individuals. This gap is exacerbating social tensions at a time of increasing American affluence and decreasing hopes in emerging markets suffering from the after-effects of the market crises of 1997.

From the establishment of this simple fact, the author then precedes in presenting a proposed architecture of solutions to Economic Disparity. First, the author presents a new vision "A reduction in poverty and more equal access to opportunity on global basis-eliminating hunger, the diseases of poverty, the trap of long-term structural unemployment". The writer then enumerates specific initiatives in combating economic disparity thru:

*Population control policies

*Increased education, access to global market for business opportunity and sustainable "framework for development" mooted by the President of the World Bank

*Tax credits and other incentives for inner city employment creation

*Workfare to replace culture of welfare dependency

*Mandatory education of children to continue government economic support to parents

*Consolidation of buying power into useful lobbying effort to attract businesses to low income areas

*Debt forgiveness by rich countries to free the power from the burden of interest payment and capital

*Strengthened street security to allow businesses to operate safely and profitably

*Cross-border forum for exchange of successful practices in poverty reduction

*Alliance of wealthy and poor nations in programs of mutual growth

Of course the author discusses a lot of other topics and offers his own set of architectural solutions to specific old problems that is present in first world economies and that of the developing countries. And I must say that to some extent, Mr. Daniell is partly right, However, I for one do not subscribe to all of his recommendations. There are simply too many localized issues that need homegrown solution, which from all indication, are in direct contravention with the author’s thesis.

The verdict is read at your own risk. Since the title of the book is World of Risk, the first statement of this paragraph is more apt than intended.