Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc by Ronan S. Estoque, MA (July, 2006)

The title is a Latin phrase with the literal translation of "after therefore because of it". In an English translation, the phrase does not even convey a complete thought; in fact, such is not even a sentence. In Latin however, the gist is that the past is just the harbinger of the present.

A couple of weeks ago, a lone Israeli soldier was kidnapped by some militant Palestinians and in exchange for his release - they are demanding the release of all political prisoners being held by the Israeli government. The policy of "no dealing with terrorists" prevailed and the result is a systematic bombing of selected Palestinian infrastructures in Gaza.

Over the weekend, two Israeli soldiers were kidnapped again and this time by the militant Lebanese Hezbolla (with the same demand) and in response to the kidnapping. The Israeli forces are systematically bombing Lebanon.

The Palestinians and the Lebanese are not taking this aggression sitting down, they are also responding with their own brand of violence, by bombing the nearest accessible town (e.g. Haifa).

The violence that was brewing for decades were finally unleashed and the unwitting participants (the Israelis, the Palestinians, and the Lebanese are all claiming to be unwilling players in this violent war episode) are all reaping the results of justified/unreasonable aggression. My sole concern is that the people who really deserves to be crippled and killed are the ones who are unscathed by this unnecessary and costly battle.

The Arab states surrounding Israel might finally converge and form an alliance that would once and for all settle the riddle and dilemma of a sovereign Jewish state.

I wouldn't even attempt to forecast the outcome of that equation. Suffice it to say that civilian casualties or collateral damage is certain to run in thousands with millions of economic implications and cost for all combatants.

Somewhere, diplomacy must prevail and put a stop to this violence. There will be no winners in this contest, only losers. The republic though thousand of miles away from the armed conflict will certainly feel the pinch in terms of higher oil crude prices. Because indirectly, instability in the Middle East is usually equated with higher oil prices for the world market. Hence, we say - post hoc ergo propter hoc.