War and Anti-War by Ronan S. Estoque (April, 2004)

I first read this book last July in 1996. I love it then and I appreciate it more now. When we were first asked to present two books about future trends, I said to myself that I am home free because my readings on the subject is quite up to date and I will have at least an edge in writing a book report. Unfortunately, when I tried to recall the salient portion of the book- facts, predictions and future trends seems to escape my recollection. And because of such absence of recollection, I was forced to re-read the book authored by the Toffler couple.

Hence, I was back in square one. The edge that I was bragging to myself was all an illusion. Like anyone else in the class, I need to do some perusal.

Initially, the work done by the Toffler couple re-articulated about the things that they had spoken about the future from the book Future Shock. The idea was original then, the book was about what happens to people when they are overwhelmed by change. It was about the way people adopt or fail to adapt to the future.

The word future shock is not found in any dictionary or any psychological book (I should know, my MA is in Psychology). Many theorists however, discussed the concept in Theories of Personality. The gist really is "adaptability". The changes that is now transforming the world, be it in culture, relationship, technology and even politics are waves that need to be accepted and managed. If one fails to do so, one is suffering from a psychological disorder presented as future shock.

The author of course discussed a lot of incident where the inability to blend with the trend threatens the very harmony of ones existence. Mr. Toffler talked about the people of the future, the durational expectancy and even the concept of transience.
With the reader’s indulgence, I would like to talk briefly about the sequel to the book Future Shock entitled The Third Wave, which in effect echoes the concept discussed in the former book and expanded further in the latter.

The main thing articulated in the Third Wave is that human history could be divided into waves. The first wave of human history is best summed by the rise in prominence of military might. The first era then is that "he who has a mighty army, rules supreme". The second wave is the rise in prominence of the power of wealth. The third wave is the dominance of knowledge in everyday affair.

Accordingly, we are now in the era of the third wave. Military might is not that important anymore (as proven by the collapsed and an emasculated army of the communist Russia) and that the era of economic dominance (the second wave) is also a failure because of viability impotence- meaning, the capital invested in an undertaking is solely usable only for such an undertaking. The third wave on the other hand is based on knowledge and as such is unlimited; the capital invested in any undertaking can be used simultaneously in other undertaking. While one cannot invest where there is no longer any capital left (in the second wave), knowledge is limitless and can be used again and again in other endeavor, in unilateral or multilateral expenditure. Knowledge grows infinitely and further growth means exponential rise in the equation- such is the theme is the book The Third Wave.

In the book Powershift, Mr. Toffler again outdid himself. The author talked about the changing nature of power. While in the book The Third Wave, the writer expounded on the linear model of knowledge explosion; the book Powershift gave it a proper articulation and endorsement.

The book was about power in the twenty-first century. It talked about violence, wealth and knowledge and their implication in our lives. It is about the new concept in power opened by the changing world. According to Mr. Toffler, we are living in the days of powershift era. We live in the day where the entire structure of power that holds the world together is disintegrating. The forces that are now affecting every level of human endeavor will become more intense and pervasive. Out of this re-structuring comes a rare event in human history, a change in the very nature of power, hence the word powershift. The author boldly states that a powershift does not merely transfer power, powershift transform power.

In the book War and Anti-war by the Toffler couple. The authors stated that from the way the economy and stability of a particular nation is based reflects the way they wage war. Again, the book was linear model of articulation of the Toffler thesis about change and conflict. In this book, Trotsky was quoted saying that "You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you". From that premise alone, the author articulated the inevitability of war and conflict in human existence. And if war and conflict is inevitable, one might as well embrace the concept and prepare for war. Constant vigilance, as the authors exclaims.

In World War I, it was estimated that at least 8 million soldiers lost their lives. Where will the next place of struggle be? What nations will have a civil war powered by nuclear weapons? How will smart bombs, pilot-less planes, and satellite communications affect and transform the nature of conflict? These and many scenarios were routinely discussed in the book.

In a world made dangerous by the end of the cold war and arms race, the authors show where and how future wars will be fought. The thesis for a paradigm for peace was offered: through technology, communication, and by the most potent force in the planet, the power of human innovation, which will eventually master the only constant variable in the equation, change.

Though the book first came out in 1993, I had the fortune of reading it only in July 1996. The year is now 2003, ten years after its initial publication- I still find the thesis and synthesis presented relevant as ever. With the conclusion of the American assault in Afghanistan and with the present American occupation in Iraq, the theme of the book is a tight fit to the evaluation of the authors.

Terrorists were predicted to be evolving as knowledge warriors- for the world to combat these violent elements; knowledge warriors in the side of democratic wings must also be developed and placed against the elements of terrorist.

Just as wealth is being redistributed through technology, technology must also redistribute knowledge and understanding among the increasing number of the population.

For in the end, it is only through communication that there could be understanding among the citizens of this planet. Peace is evasive but if peace is ever to be possible in this lifetime, peace must be powered and based through "exposure and communication".
Humanity is now in the fantastic stage of history. Behind all the pervasive gloom are several positive and humanizing changes in the planet. The knowledge based economy has galvanized all of Asia, introducing trade and strategic tension but at the same time opening the possibility of raising a billion people out of disease and poverty. Increase in global population happened between 1968 to 1990, but despite gloomy forecast of scenarios, world food supply have actually increased and the number of undernourished people have fallen significantly.

All in all, all individuals aspiring to be called "Doctors" in their own field of specialization must read this book. I can firmly say that no doctor is worth his diploma without even the perusal of (even a) synopsis of this book.

This book is not new, but this is one of those books that are valued more as one re-reads it from time to time. For all its worth, the energy expended in re-reading this book was worth every minute.